Blogs, podcasts, papers, presentations and seminars focused on exposing fallacies and misconceptions in society, politics, religion, science, and life.
Blogs, podcasts, papers, presentations and seminars focused on exposing fallacies and misconceptions in society, politics, religion, science, and life.
Like the fallacy about “roulette table” and love the interesting background music, what Vegas and life is built upon, right ? – “Don’t stop Believing “ although always an optimist, I “hope “ that most people stop believing in fallacies
There was a gambler. He was in the habit of offering 2–1 on the following bet – I will role one die six times and if it comes up six more than one time in six roles, I win. He found that over several bets, he would win money.
So he upped the ante. This time the bet was he could role two dice thirty six times and if he rolled a twelve more than once in 36 tries. he would. He found he lost money on this bet.
He couldn’t figure it out. Why would the odds of rolling two twelves in 36 rolls be less likely than rolling two sixes in six rolls?
So he took it to his friend Blaise Pascal who worked out 5/6 to the 6th power (the losing proposition) is only about 33% likely (which means 2–1 is slightly in your favour), but 35/36 to the 36th power is slightly more than 36% likely, which means you’re going to lose more than 2 out of every 3 times. Probability was born and, from there, Pascal realized you could reverse the process and also developed statistics.